WEBVTT

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we do a show about tariffs

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but so so that's just the gunpowder

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problem guys and that's one component is

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the gunpowder right there's another problem that

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keeps going to talk about which is

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how much other stuff costs like hey

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keith what's up how is copper cheap

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and like super easy to just like

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pick up off the ground

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depends are you from florida and are

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you missing teeth

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yeah

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no i'm not i'm i'm i'm available

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for the crime the copper or

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so i posted this on my on

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my sub stack article i posted a

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graph that was the six month copper

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futures prices and it looks like this

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it's just going up at a forty

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five degree angle and that's we use

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copper iud jackets in casings and the

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problem

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m is is we're not the only

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industry that uses copper know what else

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are our electronics to those use a

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lot of copper oh you know you're

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in there and what's exploded in prices

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in the electronics industry specific oh ram

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that's right britain ram chips are more

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valuable than

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frickin gold pressed platinum right now

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thanks ai

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yeah

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yeah

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so yeah guys are wrong the raw

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materials are that that's just going to

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be one of the base for components

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raw materials across the spectrum of what

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goes into a case the four components

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that go engaged primer manufacturer powering any

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factory brass cases and then a projectile

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so jacket jacket were solid copper as

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is becoming more and more common and

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they're going up costs faster going up

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and there is little way to present

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anywhere else other than boundless down the

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train of manufacture to the purchaser

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yeah it is evident that what we

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get with just gonna cost more and

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also again whereas most of the copper

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frick the friggin china can we can

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we can we put stuff in someone

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else's dirt for once by a piece

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so we've got raw material increases we

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have a historic global shortage of gunpowder

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thanks to the ongoing war in ukraine

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and you know people can be like

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oh that's to say nothing of any

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other conflict that is also consuming ammunition

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but could the middle east isn't exactly

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quiet yeah that's fine in the winter

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you need worry about

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that would be big

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but russia and ukraine because oh my

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gosh the old soviet bloc villagers were

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based that little bit of basically artillery

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bevel on the map it was a

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yeah i mean they were very artillery

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they i mean doctrinally they were big

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fans of shooting already at the guys

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until the guys went away which is

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why they had to rebuild east berlin

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from scratch basically cause they started that

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doctrine in world war two

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the other issue and so that people

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can be like oh well you know

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you guys are just saying that this

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is going to happen look you can

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not believe me all you want but

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winchester and the kinetic group in the

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kinetic group is the noon it's hard

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for me to not call them federal

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eighty k because that's what they were

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when i came into the industry was

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federal eighty k but they've gone through

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so many name changes but

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but if someone says the connecticut group

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they're talking about federal spear and the

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ccsvi blazer and those are just the

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the ammunition companies that they own cars

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they also own barnes bullets and a

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bunch of other like component ah a

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bits as well

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oh and if winchester and the kinetic

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group who are you know the two

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largest manufacturers of domestically produced ammunition in

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the united states have already signaled price

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increases to distribution for q two it's

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gonna happen all right and it's gonna

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be and so like it's it's not

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this isn't me doom and gloom ing

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you i'm just trying to prepare you

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guys

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guys cause things were look pretty nice

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on the nine millimeter ammo front for

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awhile and it's about to be less

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nice that's not to say it's going

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to be bad it's just going to

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be less nice

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and it and guys if you give

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you consider again the graph the just

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the single graph that's that's projection over

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time so just expect price expect prices

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to creak up though this isn't going

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to be a giant shit we're we're

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not we're not going to do to

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you know five hundred dollars a case

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of nine millimeter wow

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without factors that would otherwise drive five

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hundred dollars a case nine millimeter from

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the two hundred dollar case a nine

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millimeter that were johanna right now it's

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not going to happen tomorrow it's not

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going to happen at the beginning cute

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too but if we if we creep

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up over the rest of the twenty

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twenty six and into twenty seven to

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three hundred dollars a case three and

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fifty dollars the case don't be

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don't be shocked by it i would

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i would hate to see three fifty

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a case for rain and consumable nine

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mil wanna go back like it's sort

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of like gas right like if gas

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is and is in that like two

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fifty to two eighty a gallon region

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i'm like you know what this is

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fine i don't really

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we care if there isn't a three

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in front of the gas price i'm

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not super stressed out about it you

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know and then it starts getting over

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three and i'm like guys can he

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can we not do this can we

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not be at three fifty a gallon

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that's no fun and then you look

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at cat gas prices in california and

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you're like that song

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yeah glad i don't live there which

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also interestingly inch correlation ammo prices in

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california are more expensive because they banned

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direct shipping of ammunition you can't buy

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it you can't go on you like

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a gunner dot com and bible as

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a nine mil you'd have to go

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through local offer a tarnish tarnish it

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now you've got to do it for

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a

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a lot of parts and directions just

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everywhere the other otherwise you'd have to

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do all kinds of silly upload crap

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and to verify and the seller has

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to verify everything to keep records and

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the giant nightmare california sucks

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screw you newsom

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indeed in deed and yeah i mean

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i don't really have a lot to

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elaborate further on this episode we've hit

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on the two major pain points guys

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the big things again component costs are

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going to increase and we're talking about

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raw components right the costs of copper

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is going up so many different industries

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consume copper at a prodigious rate you

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know

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and it's just and it's not easy

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to pull out of the ground and

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while we do have some native copper

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here in the united states we also

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have osha in the united states which

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makes it more expensive to get the

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copper out of the ground so and

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any any space that has raw copper

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say like saying

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oh man there's a country in africa

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or something in south america if they

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don't have infrastructure in place or you

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know that process immediately that's three to

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five years away and production guys like

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assuming can save you

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to begin with fun fact chile holds

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the world's largest copper reserves representing nineteen

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to twenty five percent of the global

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total of copper

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cool

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that's great but would you like the

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money

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so i'm just such a website copper

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reserves by country so number one chile

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peru then australia and that australia doesn't

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isn't helpful for us at all cause

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it'd be prohibitively expensive to get it

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here russia super domino to fall the

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democratic republic of congo also not helpful

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mexico helpful you

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united states helpful and then us and

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china are basically tied so but again

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we have an osha and they don't

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really have osha china don't have osha

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which means to get it from there

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man if only like there was like

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i dunno like a

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so some way for us to trade

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copper with mexico really easily like maybe

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like a north american free trade alliance

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or something like that right when that

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bear and

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it'd be to have a cool acronym

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but nafta wouldn't advocate do you have

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a i don't know like i'm old

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enough sure i was a child but

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i remember like the conspiracy theories about

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nafta how it was like the first

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step to the global world order and

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they were going to abolish the dollar

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and we were just going to have

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like nafta bucks that like traded bitter

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north america and mexico and canada and

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of course none of that shit ever

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happened because look here's here's the wonderful

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crazy thing about that is lay look

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there would be one dominant power between

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the three and the nafta buck so

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then after buck would just be the

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dollar it we we would turn the

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net i mean to be fair the

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dog

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color is the default nafta buck anyways

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because that's the currency that we do

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all of the deals in the north

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american free-trade of the search or alliance

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in any way so it is so

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yes we do have and after book

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it's called the dollar congratulations congratulations

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ah currency the currency of being king

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of the world anyway guys so and

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i want to end this on the

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note two notes this is not again

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doom and gloom this is consumer advice

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right we are saying hey there's a

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chance that there's a really really good

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chance that the cost of ammunition is

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going to increase not a religious guy

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happen because as i said federal and

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winchester have already told distributors they're going

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to do an ama a price increase

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which means the as those guys go

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so goes the rest of the industry

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right like mag tackled do wine pmc

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will do one everyone's going to do

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one so your ammo is going to

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get more expensive and then hopefully will

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be able to hit a a state

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of equilibrium and things will kind of

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balance out and it'll all be fine

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for awhile but i just i dunno

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like there is a time period where

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i was really optimistic about us getting

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back to like routines sub co vid

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pricing and i just don't think that's

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going to happen i don't i don't

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either and

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it's not it's not them trying to

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suck

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of all the extra money off you

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just because you've you know people that

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there's there's gonna be some price creep

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that doesn't go away even if prices

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come back down and but for the

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most part it gets eaten up in

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all the other factors general you know

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general global inflation wage increases it all

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gets eaten up so

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at the end of the day the

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advice goes if you have the wherewithal

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to stock up now stocking up maybe

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one extra case lynch the pacers right

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now if you can afford it probably

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good advice probably something to do i

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would even say say this if you

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are the sort of pp

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person that keeps track of how much

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you shoot and how much ammo you

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buy each month whether that's someone like

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me where it's you know north of

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fifteen hundred rounds or if it's one

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hundred and fifty rounds just increase that

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by twenty five percent like you don't

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need to say you know you don't

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need to if you're if you go

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to the rain

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twice a month and you shoot you

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know maybe three hundred rounds and then

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you go by your net your next

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three hundred rounds by three hundred fifty

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by four hundred next time brain and

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set that extra one aside so that

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you can hat start building up a

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reserve you know and if you happen

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to have you know a no-limit platinum

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amex and make a few more

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any just order a palette of nine

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mil now just make your u p

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s driver really hate you and have

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ten thousand rounds of nine mil shipped

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to your house

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mickey that are both like this is

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just something that we've done so yes

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yes i i remember i remember the

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brown ales drums which were during the

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golden age of ammo purposes the brown

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around ls durham's would you like to

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buy a fifty five gallon drum full

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of five five six yeah that sounds

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great

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did that for a five five six

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and three away the only problem with

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the five or six is

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it was sixty two grin and a

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five five it wasn't fifty viagra and

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stuff so it's a little limited on

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where you can shoot it more than

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i'd like it to be i can't

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shoot at at steel or the like

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and even fly the good guys no

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it's it's not it's certainly not the

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most accurate around promised my m four

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sub emily accurate

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well it's a forum away gun so

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i'm shooting for minute ammo so if

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you have a for 'em away and

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for you have an m for that

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is performing within specifications congratulations young or

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that you know honestly and we should

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do this next week we could do

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we'll have a whole episode about how

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moma is a completely meaningless term it's

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just marketing it's all

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just marketing great like do you know

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how many guns are actually 'em away

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if you shoot like ten ten shot

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groups out of them it's a way

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different number of lower the yeah man

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this is a southern all i got

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no job i saw them away group

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congratulates now do it ten more times

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yet you know of you so bad

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of a sudden that gun looks oh

359
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man it's actually like between one and

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two so yeah that's a very accurate

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release accurate gun yeah stop worrying about

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it when i don't i think too

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that you know the end the epidemic

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of people like hosting like tenure you

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know for pistol she's shooting right people

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like look at this one whole group

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i shot at ten yards and i'm

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like i don't care about

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that group like i couldn't could not

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possibly care less about that leaves show

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me the twenty five groups yeah please

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show me please show me the fist

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sized hole roughly or two fists at

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twenty five and i'm fine i'm very

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happy now unhappy with his show me

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service pistol accuracy at twenty five yards

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consistently but anyway that's a different show

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thank you everyone for listening liking sharing

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00:14:00.255 --> 00:14:02.385
and subscribing if you're listening on spotify

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00:14:02.385 --> 00:14:04.605
or apple go ahead and leave us

381
00:14:04.605 --> 00:14:06.446
a five star review and a or

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00:14:06.525 --> 00:14:08.535
five star rating and a review cause

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that again it helps the show that

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00:14:10.275 --> 00:14:11.805
is after this week guys and we

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will be back next week with another

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episode later